Computational Finance and Business Intelligence (CFBI) Session 1

Time and Date: 13:35 - 15:15 on 11th June 2018

Room: M8

Chair: Yong Shi

121 Deep Learning and Wavelets for High-Frequency Price Forecasting [abstract]
Abstract: This paper presents improvements in financial time series prediction using a Deep Neural Network (DNN) in conjunction with a Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT). When comparing our model to other three alternatives, including ARIMA and other deep learning topologies, ours has a better performance. All of the experiments were conducted on High Frequency Data (HFD). Given the fact that DWT decomposes signals in terms of frequency and time, we expect this transformation will make a better representation of the streaking behavior of high frequency data. The input information consists of 27 variables: The last 3 one-minute pseudo-log-returns and last 3 one-minute compressed tick-by-tick wavelet vectors. Each vector is a product of compressing the tick-by-tick transactions inside a particular minute using a DWT with length 8. Furthermore, the DNN predicts the next one-minute pseudo-log-return that can be transformed into the next predicted one-minute average price. For testing purposes, we use tick-by-tick data of 19 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA), from January 2015 to July 2017. The proposed DNN's Directional Accuracy (DA) presents a remarkable forecasting performance ranging from 64% to 72%.
Andrés Arévalo, Jaime Nino, Diego León, German Hernandez and Javier Sandoval
131 Kernel Extreme Learning Machine for Learning from Label Proportions [abstract]
Abstract: As far as we know, Inverse Extreme Learning Machine (IELM) is the first work extending ELM to LLP problem. Due to basing on extreme learning machine (ELM), it obtains the fast speed and achieves competitive classification accuracy with the existing LLP methods. Kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) generalizes basic ELM to the kernel-based framework. It not only solves the problem that the number of hidden layer nodes in basic ELM depends on manual setting, but also presents better generalization ability and stability than basic ELM. However, there is no research based on KELM for LLP. In this paper, we apply KELM and propose the novel method LLP-KELM for LLP. The classification accuracy is greatly improved compared with IELM. Lots of numerical experiments validate the effectiveness of our method.
Hao Yuan, Bo Wang and Lingfeng Niu
135 Extreme Market Prediction for Trading Signal with Deep Recurrent Neural Network [abstract]
Abstract: Recurrent neural networks are a type of deep learning units that are well studied to extract features from sequential samples. They have been extensively applied in forecasting univariate financial time series, however their application to high frequency multivariate sequences has been merely considered. This paper solves a classification problem in which recurrent units are extended to deep architecture to extract features from multi-variance market data in 1-minutes frequency and extreme market are subsequently predicted for trading signals. Our results demonstrate the abilities of deep recurrent architecture to capture the relationship between the historical behavior and future movement of high frequency samples. The deep RNN is compared with other models, including SVM, random forest, logistic regression, using CSI300 1-minutes data over the test period. The result demonstrate that the capability of deep RNN to generate trading signal based on extreme movement prediction support more efficient market decision making and enhance the profitability.
Zhichen Lu, Wen Long and Ying Guo
181 Multi-view Multi-task Support Vector Machine [abstract]
Abstract: Multi-view Multi-task (MVMT) Learning, a novel learning paradigm, can be used in extensive applications such as pattern recognition and natural language processing. Therefore, researchers come up with several methods from different perspectives including graph model, regularization techniques and feature learning. SVMs have been acknowledged as powerful tools in machine learning. However, there is no SVMbased method for MVMT learning. In order to build up an excellent MVMT learner, we extend PSVM-2V model, an excellent SVM-based learner for MVL, to the multi-task framework. Through experiments we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Jiashuai Zhang, Yiwei He and Jingjing Tang
225 Research on Stock Price Forecast Based on News Sentiment Analysis --A Case Study of Alibaba [abstract]
Abstract: Based on the media news of Alibaba and improvement of L&M dictionary, this study transforms unstructured text into structured news sentiment through dictionary matching. By employing data of Alibaba’s opening price, closing price, maximum price, minimum price and volume in Thomson Reuters database, we build a fifth-order VAR model with lags. The AR test indicates the stability of VAR model. In a further step, the results of Granger causality tests, impulse response function and variance decomposition show that VAR model is successful to forecast variables dopen, dmax and dmin. What’s more, news sentiment contributes to the prediction of all these three variables. At last, MAPE reveals dopen, dmax and dmin can be used in the out sample forecast. We take dopen sequence for example, document how to predict the movement and rise of opening price by using the value and slope of dopen.
Lingling Zhang, Saiji Fu and Bochen Li